Is Europe Ready for War? Why Brussels Is Racing Against Time The European Union is confronting a stark new reality: it must strengthen its own defence. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, mounting pressure from the United States, and increasingly urgent warnings from military leaders have shaken Europe’s long-standing assumptions about security. For decades, stability relied on diplomacy, economic integration, and transatlantic guarantees—but confidence is eroding. With the war in Ukraine dragging on, allied trust fraying, and threats of further escalation intensifying, Brussels is moving fast to bolster Europe’s military, industrial, and strategic foundations.
A Continent Under Pressure
The urgency in Brussels did not appear overnight. Russia’s actions shattered old notions of European security. At the same time, Washington’s message is clear: Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own defence. EU leaders now face a delicate balance—deterring aggression while preserving unity at home.
In December, EU states approved a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled initiatives aimed at enhancing Europe’s deterrence capabilities by 2030. Meanwhile, rhetoric from Moscow and NATO has underscored the threat: in December, Vladimir Putin warned of fighting “if necessary,” while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Europe could be Russia’s next target within five years. Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Europe may have already experienced its “last summer of peace.”
Public Readiness Lags
Despite political urgency, public willingness to fight remains low. A recent Euronews poll of nearly 10,000 Europeans found that only 19% would take up arms to defend the EU, while 75% said they would not, and 8% were unsure. Concern about Russian aggression is highest in countries bordering Russia, with YouGov polls showing that 51% of Poles, 57% of Lithuanians, and 62% of Danes view military pressure as a major threat. Across Europe, armed conflict now ranks among the top public worries alongside economic instability and energy security.
Eastern Europe Leads Preparation
Countries in the EU’s east have acted decisively. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have implemented both practical and psychological measures for civilian readiness. Lithuania is building “drone walls” along its borders and restoring wetlands for defensive purposes, while public awareness campaigns and emergency drills are routine. Latvia introduced mandatory national defence education in schools, and Poland expanded security education and built barriers along its border with Belarus. Finland, Estonia, and Sweden revived Cold War-era civil defence practices, including guides on crisis response and household brochures detailing emergency procedures. Online searches for shelters and evacuation plans have surged in these countries.
EU-Wide Coordination
Beyond national efforts, Brussels is spearheading its most ambitious defence coordination program ever. EU defence spending surpassed €300 billion in 2024, and a proposed 2028–2034 budget adds €131 billion for aerospace and defence . The “Readiness 2030” plan, endorsed by all 27 member states, aims to move troops and equipment across EU borders within three days in peacetime—or six hours during emergencies—while eliminating bureaucratic delays through a “Military Schengen” system. About 500 key infrastructure points, including bridges, ports, and railways, are being upgraded at an estimated cost of €70–100 billion.
The ReArm Europe initiative aligns national defence investments and strengthens industrial capacity. It includes EDIP (European Defence Industry Programme) with €1.5 billion for joint R&D and production, and SAFE (Strategic Armament Financing Envelope), a €150 billion loan facility for collaborative weapons procurement. These tools aim to reduce fragmentation and ensure systems work seamlessly across borders.
Transatlantic Pressure
The U.S. is pressing Europe harder than ever. A December 2025 national security strategy described Europe as a weakened partner, expecting it to assume most NATO conventional defence responsibilities by 2027—well before many member states can realistically comply. At the 2025 NATO summit, allies set a goal of 5% GDP spending on defence by 2035, yet most countries remain below this threshold.
Europe has pushed back, emphasizing its strategic autonomy. EU officials, including Valdis Dombrovskis, António Costa, and Kaja Kallas, rejected suggestions that Washington should dictate Europe’s internal political choices, highlighting a growing transatlantic divide.
A Race Against Time
Despite increased spending and reforms, structural challenges remain: regulatory bottlenecks, slow procurement cycles, and fragmented industrial capacity. SAFE has already received requests for nearly 700 projects totaling €50 billion, with pre-financing of €22.5 billion potentially available by early 2026. Europe’s central question is no longer whether it should act—but whether it can act fast enough to meet the mounting threats.
