Is Europe Ready for War? Brussels Races Against Time Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union faces a stark reality that once seemed unimaginable: the urgent need to prepare its own defence . Decades of relying on diplomacy, economic integration, and transatlantic security guarantees have left Europe with a sense of confidence that is now eroding. The war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending, alliances are being tested, and military leaders are issuing increasingly direct warnings of potential escalation. Brussels is responding—quickly and decisively—to shore up Europe’s military, industrial, and strategic foundations.
A Continent Under Pressure
The sense of urgency did not appear overnight. Russia’s actions in Ukraine shattered long-standing assumptions about European security. At the same time, signals from Washington have grown unmistakably clear: Europe must take greater responsibility for its own defence.
European leaders now face a dual imperative—deterring potential aggression while keeping domestic unity intact. In December 2025, EU leaders agreed on a €90 billion loan package to support Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a series of defence initiatives aimed at enhancing Europe’s deterrence capabilities by 2030.
The rhetoric surrounding the threat has become increasingly stark. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared in December 2025 that Russia is prepared to fight if necessary, warning that there may be “no one left to negotiate with.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Europe could become Russia’s next target, predicting that an attack on NATO territory could occur within five years. Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius echoed these concerns, noting that Europe may have already experienced its “last summer of peace.” Across the continent, security officials are delivering a consistent message: the risk of conflict is no longer theoretical.
Public Readiness Lags
Despite growing political urgency, Europeans themselves appear less prepared. A Euronews poll of nearly 10,000 respondents asked whether they would fight for EU borders: 75% said no, only 19% said yes, and 8% were unsure.
This gap between government planning and public sentiment is mirrored in other surveys. Concern about Russian military pressure is highest in countries closest to Moscow, with 51% of Poles, 57% of Lithuanians, and 62% of Danes identifying it as a top threat. Across the EU, armed conflict now ranks alongside economic instability and energy security among the top public concerns.
Eastern Europe Leads the Way
While EU leaders broadly agree on the threat, the most decisive action is occurring in the east. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have implemented visible measures to prepare both populations and infrastructure. Lithuania is developing “drone walls” along its borders and restoring wetlands as defensive barriers. Latvia has introduced mandatory national defence education in schools. Poland has built physical barriers along its border with Belarus and included firearm safety instruction for teenagers in secondary schools. Finland, Estonia, and Sweden have revived Cold War–era civil defence practices, publishing detailed guides for citizens on responding to crises. In 2025, Sweden even mailed updated “If Crisis or War Comes” brochures to every household.
Search trends indicate growing public concern. Online queries in countries near Russia, such as “nearest shelter” or “what to pack for evacuation,” surged throughout 2025, reflecting heightened anxiety about potential conflict.
Brussels Steps Up
National governments are not acting in isolation. At the EU level, Brussels has launched its most ambitious defence coordination effort in history. European defence spending exceeded €300 billion in 2024, and the proposed 2028–2034 EU budget earmarks an additional €131 billion for aerospace and defence—five times more than in the previous cycle.
Central to this strategy is Readiness 2030, a roadmap endorsed by all 27 member states. Its objectives are both practical and urgent: move troops and equipment across EU borders within three days in peacetime, reduce that to six hours in emergencies, and streamline procedures via a “Military Schengen” system. The EU has identified 500 critical infrastructure points—including bridges, tunnels, ports, and railways—to support heavy military movements, with estimated costs of €70–100 billion funded through national budgets and EU programs like the Connecting Europe Facility.
ReArm Europe: Coordinating Defence Investment
In 2025, the EU launched ReArm Europe, a platform designed to coordinate national defence investments and strengthen industrial capacity. Europe’s defence sector has long struggled with fragmentation—duplicated procurement, incompatible systems, and siloed capabilities. ReArm Europe aims to unify these efforts through two key initiatives:
- EDIP (European Defence Industry Programme) – €1.5 billion allocated for joint research, development, and production projects involving at least three EU countries or two plus Ukraine.
- SAFE (Strategic Armament Financing Envelope) – A €150 billion EU-level loan facility for joint weapons procurement, enabling faster and more cost-effective deployment.
These tools encourage countries to pool resources, streamline procurement, and ensure new systems are interoperable.
The U.S. Factor
Pressure from Washington has intensified. The U.S. national security strategy, published in December 2025, described Europe as a weakened partner and reiterated an “America First” approach, emphasizing the expectation that Europe will assume most of NATO’s conventional defence responsibilities by 2027—a timeline many European officials consider unrealistic. NATO allies agreed at the 2025 summit in The Hague to aim for 5% of GDP in defence spending by 2035, though most EU countries remain far below that target.
Europe Pushes Back
European officials have responded firmly. EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis rejected U.S. criticism, calling for greater European assertiveness. Council President António Costa and foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stressed that allies should not interfere with democratic decision-making. The exchange underscores a growing transatlantic divide—not just over Ukraine, but over Europe’s long-term strategic autonomy.
Structural Hurdles Remain
Despite rising budgets, experts caution that money alone cannot resolve Europe’s defence challenges. Regulatory bottlenecks, slow procurement cycles, and fragmented industrial capacity persist. Early findings from the Defence Industrial Readiness Survey confirm persistent delays, incompatible systems, and production limits. Brussels has begun fast-tracking regulatory reforms and simplifying approval processes, but decades of underinvestment cannot be undone overnight.
Looking Ahead
Early signs show strong demand for EU defence resources. SAFE has already received nearly 700 project requests totaling close to €50 billion for air defence, ammunition, missiles, drones, and maritime systems, with up to €22.5 billion in pre-financing expected by early 2026.
Timelines are tight. Europe must modernise its defence industry, maintain support for Ukraine, and respond to explicit warnings from NATO and Washington. Increasingly, EU officials are not asking whether Europe should act—they are asking whether it can act fast enough.
