Europe is confronting an unprecedented challenge to its defence readiness, driven by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, increasing pressure from the United States, and stark warnings from military leaders. For years, the continent relied on diplomacy and transatlantic security, but this confidence has eroded. With the war in Ukraine ongoing and trust among allies faltering, the EU is rapidly moving to bolster its military, industrial, and strategic foundations, signalling a profound shift in its approach to security.
The sense of urgency is palpable in Brussels, amplified by Russia’s invasion that shattered long-held security assumptions. Meanwhile, Washington has made it clear that Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own defence. EU leaders recently approved a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine and initiated defence initiatives aimed at strengthening deterrence by 2030. This comes amid chilling rhetoric: Vladimir Putin declared Russia’s readiness to fight, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned of a potential attack on NATO territory within five years. Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius echoed these concerns, suggesting Europe might have seen its ‘last summer of peace.’ The message from Europe’s security establishment is clear: the threat is no longer theoretical.
Despite the political urgency, public readiness remains a significant concern. A Euronews poll revealed that 75% of respondents would not fight for the EU’s borders, highlighting a gap between government strategy and public sentiment. However, concern about Russian aggression is particularly high in countries bordering Russia, such as Poland, Lithuania, and Denmark. Consequently, Eastern European nations are leading the charge in preparing their populations, both practically and psychologically. Lithuania is developing ‘drone walls’ and distributing shelter maps, Latvia introduced mandatory defence education, and Poland built border barriers. Countries like Finland, Estonia, and Sweden have revived Cold War-era civil defence guides, with Sweden mailing updated ‘If Crisis or War Comes’ brochures to every household in 2025, reflecting a surge in public concern and emergency preparedness efforts.
Behind the scenes, Brussels has launched its most ambitious defence coordination efforts to date. European defence spending exceeded €300 billion in 2024, with an additional €131 billion earmarked for aerospace and defence in the proposed 2028–2034 EU budget. The cornerstone of this strategy is Readiness 2030, a roadmap to enable rapid troop and equipment movement across EU borders, aiming for within three days in peacetime and six hours in emergencies, facilitated by a ‘Military Schengen‘ system. This involves identifying and upgrading around 500 critical infrastructure points at an estimated cost of €70-100 billion.
In 2025, Brussels introduced ReArm Europe, a central platform to align national defence investments and boost industrial capacity. This initiative tackles the historical fragmentation of Europe’s defence sector through two key tools: the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), with €1.5 billion for joint research, development, and production (requiring at least three EU countries or two plus Ukraine), and the Strategic Armament Financing Envelope (SAFE), a €150 billion EU-level loan facility for joint weapons procurement. These mechanisms are designed to encourage resource pooling, better contract negotiation, and seamless interoperability among new systems.
Pressure from Washington has intensified, with the U.S. national security strategy describing Europe as a weakened partner and reaffirming an ‘America First’ posture. The U.S. expects Europe to assume most of NATO’s conventional defence responsibilities by 2027, a timeline many European officials find unrealistic. At the 2025 NATO summit, allies aimed for 5% of GDP in defence spending by 2035, a target most European nations are far from meeting. This, coupled with U.S. criticisms of Europe’s internal policies and hints at stabilising relations with Russia, has fueled concerns in Brussels about the reliability of unconditional U.S. security guarantees. European officials, including EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, have pushed back, rejecting the U.S. assessment and calling for greater European assertiveness, underscoring a growing transatlantic divide over Europe’s strategic autonomy.
Despite increased budgets and political momentum, experts like Séamus Boland warn that structural limits, such as regulatory bottlenecks, slow procurement, and fragmented industrial capacity, pose significant hurdles. Early findings from the Defence Industrial Readiness Survey confirm these longstanding issues. Brussels is attempting to fast-track regulatory reforms, but decades of underinvestment cannot be undone overnight. The demand for support is clear, with SAFE receiving requests for nearly 700 projects totaling close to €50 billion for air defence, ammunition, and other critical systems. With tight timelines and explicit warnings from NATO and Washington, the central question for Europe has shifted from ‘whether it should act’ to ‘whether it can act fast enough.’
